Monday, January 24, 2005

Democrats Rising in the West?

Despite getting their butts kicked in general in the 2004 elections, the Democrats did pick up seats in lower levels in states that might surprise you, states in the Rocky Mountain and Sun Belt areas. There are plans afoot to gain a foothold in these states.

Arizona Democratic chairman Jim Pedersen is quoted as saying that Democrats have lost the South, and so need to look for “another field to mine.” That is not the proper way to go about restoring the prominence of the Democrats…to cherry-pick regions and/or states is a losing proposition. Just ask John Kerry. They need to look for ways to have a broad appeal ALL OVER, and not just the Northeast and California. With that said, their ideas to “mine” the Western states could be a start to new broad ideas to win back the country.

In Montana, Democrats captured control of both houses of the Legislature and saw a Democratic governor win for the first time in 2 decades. Bush won Montana handily on the national scale, but Bill Clinton won that state in 1992 (though not 1996).

In Colorado, Democrats won control of both houses of the state Legislature and also picked up a U.S. House and Senate seat. Clinton won that state in 1992 (and narrowly lost in 1996). In 2004, Bush won, but pre-Election polling had it very close and there was speculation that Kerry would win it.

In Nevada, Bush won in 2004 by 20,000 votes. The state has 2 Democratic Senators, including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Clinton won the state twice.

There is certainly some potential here. I keep pointing out Bill Clinton’s victories to show that Democratic wins there are certainly not unprecedented. As more people move to these states, their clout in the Electoral College will increase, and Democrats would be wise to grab a solid foothold here. The population is booming, and a large chunk of the newcomers are Hispanics. The governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, is a Hispanic Democrat.

Democrats would have to develop strong positions on land use and urban sprawl, and reconcile their traditional positions on gun control. The Republicans do not have a leg to stand on with environmental issues, which are also big in those areas.

The potential here does NOT mean they should just write off the South, but it is potential that should not be overlooked. If Democrats can gain a viable foothold in this region and also figure out how to get more Southerners in their corner, then we’re talking. We’ll have a party for all people, not just ones that happen to live in California, the Pacific Northwest, New England, Chicago, Philadelphia, Southern Florida, New York City, and half of Ohio.
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